Defense, Risk-Aversion and the NBA Draft: Which Prospects are Overrated and Which Prospects are Underrated?

The NBA draft is probably the most important event of the year when it comes to building for a franchise’s future. The difference between drafting Derrick Rose vs. drafting Michael Beasley translates into tens, if not hundreds, of millions of dollars of franchise value (even despite Rose’s recent injury woes). Of course, the NBA draft… More Defense, Risk-Aversion and the NBA Draft: Which Prospects are Overrated and Which Prospects are Underrated?

Running Back Efficiency and the Perils of First Round Backs

Much debate has surrounded the idea of drafting a running back in the first round. Many analysts have succeeded in proving that the value of running backs pales in comparison to that of other positions. Additionally, the rookie wage scale makes teams more inclined to draft positions that tend to produce more value. Another problem… More Running Back Efficiency and the Perils of First Round Backs

Ikarus

“Casillas is a living legend,” “He has led Spain to several titles,” “He is a symbol of Real Madrid…” Phrases like these are a recurring narrative among Spanish sports journals and a devastatingly large portion of soccer enthusiasts around the globe. Let me just start by saying that nobody can deny that Iker Casillas was… More Ikarus

Introducing Expected Contract Value Part 5: Frequently Asked Questions

How large is your sample size? The initial sample size used to run the regression analysis was approximately 1,500 “contract seasons.” Each contract season is a single input record. So if a given player’s contract covered five seasons from 2005-2009, this resulted in five different contract seasons for the purpose of creating input records (even… More Introducing Expected Contract Value Part 5: Frequently Asked Questions

Introducing Expected Contract Value Part 4: Salary Cap Budgeting

In addition to enabling the valuation of a contract from the perspective of the amount of money that the player can expect to earn, Expected Contract Value also enables teams to budget for the contract from the perspective of the amount of salary cap space that the player can be expected to account for. This… More Introducing Expected Contract Value Part 4: Salary Cap Budgeting

Introducing Expected Contract Value Part 3: Contract Comparison

In order to expand upon Part 1 and Part 2, and demonstrate how Expected Contract Value can be helpful in comparing contracts, let’s take a look at an article from overthecap.com in June 2014 in which Jason compared the recent large contracts of centers Maurkice Pouncey, Alex Mack, and Ryan Kalil. This article is the archetype… More Introducing Expected Contract Value Part 3: Contract Comparison

Introducing Expected Contract Value Part 2: Inputs And Outputs

  As we described yesterday, Expected Contract Value is an objective metric that enables valuation and comparison of contracts, as well as team salary cap budgeting, by using regression analysis to identify the influence on team-decision making of the relationships among various contract characteristics. Today, we will describe both the inputs and outputs of the… More Introducing Expected Contract Value Part 2: Inputs And Outputs

Introducing Expected Contract Value Part 1: Justification, Theory, & “Contract Analytics”

NFL contracts are extremely difficult to accurately value, compare, and budget. This difficulty arises primarily from two factors: (1) the generally non-guaranteed nature of the contracts and (2) the variety of types of components which comprise the contracts (signing bonus, roster bonus, base salary, etc.) Because NFL contracts are generally not guaranteed, the face value… More Introducing Expected Contract Value Part 1: Justification, Theory, & “Contract Analytics”