Running Back Efficiency and the Perils of First Round Backs

Much debate has surrounded the idea of drafting a running back in the first round. Many analysts have succeeded in proving that the value of running backs pales in comparison to that of other positions. Additionally, the rookie wage scale makes teams more inclined to draft positions that tend to produce more value. Another problem … More Running Back Efficiency and the Perils of First Round Backs

Introducing Expected Contract Value Part 5: Frequently Asked Questions

How large is your sample size? The initial sample size used to run the regression analysis was approximately 1,500 “contract seasons.” Each contract season is a single input record. So if a given player’s contract covered five seasons from 2005-2009, this resulted in five different contract seasons for the purpose of creating input records (even … More Introducing Expected Contract Value Part 5: Frequently Asked Questions

Introducing Expected Contract Value Part 4: Salary Cap Budgeting

In addition to enabling the valuation of a contract from the perspective of the amount of money that the player can expect to earn, Expected Contract Value also enables teams to budget for the contract from the perspective of the amount of salary cap space that the player can be expected to account for. This … More Introducing Expected Contract Value Part 4: Salary Cap Budgeting

Introducing Expected Contract Value Part 3: Contract Comparison

In order to expand upon Part 1 and Part 2, and demonstrate how Expected Contract Value can be helpful in comparing contracts, let’s take a look at an article from overthecap.com in June 2014 in which Jason compared the recent large contracts of centers Maurkice Pouncey, Alex Mack, and Ryan Kalil. This article is the archetype … More Introducing Expected Contract Value Part 3: Contract Comparison

Introducing Expected Contract Value Part 2: Inputs And Outputs

  As we described yesterday, Expected Contract Value is an objective metric that enables valuation and comparison of contracts, as well as team salary cap budgeting, by using regression analysis to identify the influence on team-decision making of the relationships among various contract characteristics. Today, we will describe both the inputs and outputs of the … More Introducing Expected Contract Value Part 2: Inputs And Outputs

Introducing Expected Contract Value Part 1: Justification, Theory, & “Contract Analytics”

NFL contracts are extremely difficult to accurately value, compare, and budget. This difficulty arises primarily from two factors: (1) the generally non-guaranteed nature of the contracts and (2) the variety of types of components which comprise the contracts (signing bonus, roster bonus, base salary, etc.) Because NFL contracts are generally not guaranteed, the face value … More Introducing Expected Contract Value Part 1: Justification, Theory, & “Contract Analytics”

Playing it Safe: Should Coaches Kick the Field Goal?

In the game against the Jets, Mike Tomlin’s team possessed the ball inside the redzone while facing a fourth-and-two. Tomlin opted to play it safe and kick the field goal. However, Shaun Suisham shanked his kick wide left to the surprise of everyone in the stadium. Whether or not Tomlin’s decision was the right call … More Playing it Safe: Should Coaches Kick the Field Goal?

Why We Love Sports

With the NHL preseason a few weeks away, I must admit that I have never been much of a hockey fan. Basketball, baseball, football, and soccer are all sports I follow intensely, but hockey never really piqued my interest. That all changed over the course of a few months earlier this year.