Visualizing Wide Receiver Routes with Player Tracking Data

Image from http://blogs-images.forbes.com/jasonbelzer/files/2014/07/Speed.png This May, NFL teams will finally be granted access to league-owned player tracking data from the 2015 season. The league had previously reached an agreement with Zebra Technologies to install chips in players’ shoulder pads that use radio frequency to broadcast each player’s location and speed 25 times per second, effectively generating … More Visualizing Wide Receiver Routes with Player Tracking Data

Comparing the Marginal Cost of the Fifth-Year Option for NFL First-Round Picks

One of the major additions in the 2011 NFL CBA was the introduction of the fifth-year option as a way for teams to retain their first-round picks for one extra season at a cost-controlled level. For these high draft picks, they receive a raise on what they were making on their rookie deals, but it … More Comparing the Marginal Cost of the Fifth-Year Option for NFL First-Round Picks

Introducing Expected Contract Value Part 5: Frequently Asked Questions

How large is your sample size? The initial sample size used to run the regression analysis was approximately 1,500 “contract seasons.” Each contract season is a single input record. So if a given player’s contract covered five seasons from 2005-2009, this resulted in five different contract seasons for the purpose of creating input records (even … More Introducing Expected Contract Value Part 5: Frequently Asked Questions

Introducing Expected Contract Value Part 4: Salary Cap Budgeting

In addition to enabling the valuation of a contract from the perspective of the amount of money that the player can expect to earn, Expected Contract Value also enables teams to budget for the contract from the perspective of the amount of salary cap space that the player can be expected to account for. This … More Introducing Expected Contract Value Part 4: Salary Cap Budgeting

Introducing Expected Contract Value Part 3: Contract Comparison

In order to expand upon Part 1 and Part 2, and demonstrate how Expected Contract Value can be helpful in comparing contracts, let’s take a look at an article from overthecap.com in June 2014 in which Jason compared the recent large contracts of centers Maurkice Pouncey, Alex Mack, and Ryan Kalil. This article is the archetype … More Introducing Expected Contract Value Part 3: Contract Comparison

Introducing Expected Contract Value Part 2: Inputs And Outputs

  As we described yesterday, Expected Contract Value is an objective metric that enables valuation and comparison of contracts, as well as team salary cap budgeting, by using regression analysis to identify the influence on team-decision making of the relationships among various contract characteristics. Today, we will describe both the inputs and outputs of the … More Introducing Expected Contract Value Part 2: Inputs And Outputs

Introducing Expected Contract Value Part 1: Justification, Theory, & “Contract Analytics”

NFL contracts are extremely difficult to accurately value, compare, and budget. This difficulty arises primarily from two factors: (1) the generally non-guaranteed nature of the contracts and (2) the variety of types of components which comprise the contracts (signing bonus, roster bonus, base salary, etc.) Because NFL contracts are generally not guaranteed, the face value … More Introducing Expected Contract Value Part 1: Justification, Theory, & “Contract Analytics”