Introducing Expected Contract Value Part 5: Frequently Asked Questions

How large is your sample size? The initial sample size used to run the regression analysis was approximately 1,500 “contract seasons.” Each contract season is a single input record. So if a given player’s contract covered five seasons from 2005-2009, this resulted in five different contract seasons for the purpose of creating input records (even … More Introducing Expected Contract Value Part 5: Frequently Asked Questions

Introducing Expected Contract Value Part 4: Salary Cap Budgeting

In addition to enabling the valuation of a contract from the perspective of the amount of money that the player can expect to earn, Expected Contract Value also enables teams to budget for the contract from the perspective of the amount of salary cap space that the player can be expected to account for. This … More Introducing Expected Contract Value Part 4: Salary Cap Budgeting

Introducing Expected Contract Value Part 3: Contract Comparison

In order to expand upon Part 1 and Part 2, and demonstrate how Expected Contract Value can be helpful in comparing contracts, let’s take a look at an article from overthecap.com in June 2014 in which Jason compared the recent large contracts of centers Maurkice Pouncey, Alex Mack, and Ryan Kalil. This article is the archetype … More Introducing Expected Contract Value Part 3: Contract Comparison

Introducing Expected Contract Value Part 2: Inputs And Outputs

  As we described yesterday, Expected Contract Value is an objective metric that enables valuation and comparison of contracts, as well as team salary cap budgeting, by using regression analysis to identify the influence on team-decision making of the relationships among various contract characteristics. Today, we will describe both the inputs and outputs of the … More Introducing Expected Contract Value Part 2: Inputs And Outputs

Introducing Expected Contract Value Part 1: Justification, Theory, & “Contract Analytics”

NFL contracts are extremely difficult to accurately value, compare, and budget. This difficulty arises primarily from two factors: (1) the generally non-guaranteed nature of the contracts and (2) the variety of types of components which comprise the contracts (signing bonus, roster bonus, base salary, etc.) Because NFL contracts are generally not guaranteed, the face value … More Introducing Expected Contract Value Part 1: Justification, Theory, & “Contract Analytics”

Breaking Down the Key Plays in a Possible Super Bowl Preview

In Week 13 of the 2014 NFL season, in what could very well have been a Super Bowl preview between the Green Bay Packers and New England Patriots, the Pack emerged victorious on a cold night in Green Bay, Wisconsin, winning by a final score of 26-21. Quarterback Aaron Rodgers threw for 368 yards and … More Breaking Down the Key Plays in a Possible Super Bowl Preview

Playing it Safe: Should Coaches Kick the Field Goal?

In the game against the Jets, Mike Tomlin’s team possessed the ball inside the redzone while facing a fourth-and-two. Tomlin opted to play it safe and kick the field goal. However, Shaun Suisham shanked his kick wide left to the surprise of everyone in the stadium. Whether or not Tomlin’s decision was the right call … More Playing it Safe: Should Coaches Kick the Field Goal?

Washington Redskins: Building and Maintaining a Team Identity

Dan Snyder, the owner who dominates the Washington NFL scene, maintains a very polarized public image in regards to how his fan base views the organization. This has become a trend much larger than Washington, as fans of many other teams are starting to take interest. Protests have already taken place in Green Bay and … More Washington Redskins: Building and Maintaining a Team Identity