Steals, Regularized Adjusted Plus-Minus, and Ignoring Position

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There has been a lot of discussion regarding the findings of this FiveThirtyEight article praising the value of the steal in the evaluation of players (in the piece, a steal is even claimed to have the value equivalent of 9.1 points in terms of irreplaceability). The biggest question regarding the analysis appears to be this: Are players that go for steals leaving their teams in worse positions defensively? Read more of this post

2014 MLB Season Preview

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As I sit here with snow cascading onto campus, it is hard to imagine that Opening Day is here. Spring Break and brief windows of warmth have teased us, but baseball’s beckoning presence restores optimism and reminds us of the old adage “hope springs eternal,” with better weather, and more importantly baseball, right around the corner. Read more of this post

MLB Aging Curves

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Header aging curve courtesy of beyondtheboxscore.com

On November 22, 2013, GSABR members Preston Barclay, Kyle Franco, Camden Hu, Nik Oza, and Xavier Weisenreider competed in SABR President Vince Gennaro’s Diamond Dollars Case Competition against twelve other schools at NYU in New York City. The case involved the forecasting of the free agent contracts of catcher Brian McCann and pitcher Ubaldo Jimenez by forecasting the players’ future production and other factors inherent to the free agent market, particularly the attachment of a qualifying offer on the two players, which would result in the loss of a draft pick for the signing team. The article below is part 3 of a series on the team’s research over a five day span from Sunday, November 17 until the competition. Read more of this post

A Guide to Making an Unwinnable Bracket

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There is something beautiful about the start of the tournament, with your bracket made and still having the possibility of achieving a perfect score. You get to see all the possible points on the board, no red lines, no disappointment. Last year, however, I didn’t have that luxury, as I had made my bracket with a contradiction. Read more of this post

GSABR NCAA Tournament Preview

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It’s that time of the year once again. The greatest weekend in college sports will soon be upon us, with 48 basketball games played in a 4-day span. People across the country diligently fill out brackets with Warren Buffett’s billion-dollar prize looming overhead (although probably no one will win it). March Madness is upon us. Here are some quick thoughts: Read more of this post

A Block Party on Bourbon Street

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When Anthony Davis was drafted with the first overall pick in the 2012 NBA Draft, it was expected that he would become an impact player on the defensive side of the court. A late growth spurt in high school resulted in a unique skillset not befitting a man of his size. After dominating in his lone season at the University of Kentucky, Davis moved onto the NBA, and most anticipated that he would have a very successful career, even if he did not produce at an All-League level immediately. Read more of this post

How Good Is Jack Taylor?

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There is a distinct difference between watching a college basketball game and one from the NBA. When you head over to the Verizon Center in DC to watch the Hoyas play, you will most likely see scores in the 50s. Go to a Wizards game the very next night, and it would be a disappointment if they didn’t score more than 80 points. Sure, NBA games are eight minutes longer than college games, and the shot clock is ten seconds shorter. Just by these simple rules alone, the NBA is designed to produce these higher scores and understandably so. The NBA is a business; high scores make people more excited, and that brings in revenue. In no way do I intend to argue that the NCAA isn’t a business; that’s a question for another day. Read more of this post

The Value of a Compensatory Draft Pick

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On November 22, 2013, GSABR members Preston Barclay, Kyle Franco, Camden Hu, Nik Oza, and Xavier Weisenreider competed in SABR President Vince Gennaro’s Diamond Dollars Case Competition against twelve other schools at NYU in New York City. The case involved the forecasting of the free agent contracts of catcher Brian McCann and pitcher Ubaldo Jimenez by forecasting the players’ future production and other factors inherent to the free agent market, particularly the attachment of a qualifying offer on the two players, which would result in the loss of a draft pick for the signing team. The article below is part 2 of a series on the team’s research over a five day span from Sunday, November 17 until the competition. Read more of this post

Does Peyton Manning Perform Worse in the Playoffs?

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The ongoing debate about the best quarterback of all time becomes complicated when people mention Dan Marino or Brett Favre, men whose playoff accomplishments did not match their regular season success. In our generation, two players sit high above the rest: Tom Brady, winner of three Super Bowls, and Peyton Manning, whose eleven playoff losses often overshadow his lone ring. Following a devastating loss in double overtime to the eventual champion Baltimore Ravens, Manning exited another postseason earlier than planned with only a few more chances left in his career to capture another title. Over time, the media has placed a lot of emphasis on his team’s playoff failures, which has led fans to believe Peyton Manning is a choke artist when it matters. Read more of this post

The Best Soccer Shootout Strategy: Flip a Coin?

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Penalty kick shootouts are one of the most exciting parts of sports, and with the World Cup coming up soon there very well may be some high profile shootout matchups that draw worldwide attention.  However, a shootout is brutal for goalies; the shot comes from so close that a goalie has almost no time to react and cover the entirety of the net, which is why you often see goalies dive the opposite way of the shot. A casual soccer fan may find that funny, but someone who knows soccer understands that such an occurrence is often inescapable; in order for a goalie to have any chance to stop the shot, he often has to decide on a direction to dive before the shot takes place. Read more of this post

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